Viewing archive of Friday, 26 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 26 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
Regions 1050 (S18W51) and 1051 (N15E41) remained quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low on day one (27 February). However, there is a chance for C-class
flares on days two and three (28 February - 01 March) due to the
return of old Region 1045 (N19, L251).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 February). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on days two and
three (28 February - 01 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 081 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 082/084/084 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 005/006-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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