Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 25 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
Regions 1050 (S19W40) and 1051 (N16E54) were quiet and stable
Bxo/Beta groups. SOHO/LASCO images showed a faint, slow CME from the
southeast quadrant late yesterday (estimated plane of sky velocity
348 km/sec). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during most of the period. However, there will be a chance for
C-class flares beginning on day 3 (28 February) due to the expected
return of old Region 1045 (N19, L=251).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (26 - 27
February). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (28 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. The CME mentioned above is not expected to
disturb the field during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 083 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 082/080/082 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 005/005-005/006-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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