Viewing archive of Monday, 18 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1040 (N26W83) produced a
C2.1 flare at 17/2233Z. An uncorrelated C4.9 flare occurred at
18/2039Z. Region 1040 was classified early today as a Dho-beta group
with four spots. Sunspot observations decayed as Region 1040
continued to rotate off the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible. There remains a
slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on day one (19 January). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions at high latitudes,
are expected on day 2 (20 January) as a coronal hole moves into a
geoeffective position. Predominantly quiet levels are expected to
return on day three (21 January).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 082 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 005/005-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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