Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1040 (N30W74)
produced two flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these
was a B6.1 at 17/2025Z. Region 1040 continued to slowly decay as it
neared the west limb, while retaining its beta configuration. A
flare and subsequent EUVI wave was observed near the southeast limb
on STEREO-B EUVI imagery at 17/0356Z. SOHO EIT C2 imagery showed a
CME off the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares remain possible, as well as a
slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels
possible at high latitudes, as a coronal hole high-speed stream
moves into a geoeffective position late on day one (18 January) and
continuing into day two (19 January). Quiet levels are expected to
return on day three (20).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 083 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 083/083/080 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 001/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 006/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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