Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 20 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Isolated low-level B-class
flares occurred during the latter half of the period. Region 1035
(N31W70) showed no significant changes during the period. New Region
1038 (N16W26), a simply-structured A-type group, was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with an isolated C-class flare possible from Region 1035.
There is also a slight chance for an M-class flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (21 - 23
December).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 084 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 084/080/076 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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