Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 19 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low by virtue of a single C2.9/Sf at
10/0014Z from Region 1035 (N30W56). Since this event, only B-class
x-ray activity, with some weak, low frequency radio emissions have
been observed from this region. Over the past 24 hours, the region
decayed, both in areal coverage and spot number, but retained its
beta magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered this
period. Region 1036 (S29W19) emerged on the disk as a 3-spot beta
group, while Region 1037 (N18E54) rotated onto the disk as a 2-spot
beta group. Both regions have been quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is a slight chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 1035.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods on day one (20 December). This activity is in response to
the expected arrival of the CME observed on 16 December. Days two
and three (21 - 22 December) will see mostly quiet conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 082 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 082/082/080 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 015/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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