Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 25 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar Activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar Activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with two isolated unsettled
periods, 25/0000-0600Z. A secondary solar wind data source,
SOHO/MTOF, indicated the earth is currently in a high speed stream,
preceded by a co-rotating interaction region detected by the ACE
spacecraft early yesterday. Wind speeds, as measured by SOHO/MTOF,
averaged 430-470 km/sec during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (26 Nov) based on
recurrence. Quiet conditions are expected to return on days two and
three (27-28 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 074 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 074/073/071 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 007/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 007/-99999-005/-99999-005/-99999
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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