Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 24 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar Activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The ACE spacecraft
detected the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region at
24/0600Z. Solar wind speeds began to increase at 24/0800Z and
reached about 450 km/sec by 24/1800Z. The elevated wind speed and
fluctuating Bt/Bz caused three unsettled periods, 24/1200-2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity on day one
(25 Nov) is expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for unsettled
periods due to persistence of current solar wind conditions.
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled again on day two
(26 Nov) based on recurrence. Quiet conditions are expected to
return on day three (27 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 075 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 075/075/073 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 007/008-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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