Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 October 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 22 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated period of minor storm levels was observed at 22/1200Z. A
geomagnetic sudden impulse occurred at 22/0019Z (11 nT, as measured
by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). This activity was associated with
a faint partial-halo CME which was observed around 17/1900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on day one (23 October). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on days two and three (24 - 25 October) in
response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 072 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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