Viewing archive of Friday, 25 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 25 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1026 (S30E15) produced
a C2 x-ray flare at 25/0102Z. This single-spot group has decreased
in area in the past 24 hours. Region 1027 (N24W08) remains a beta
group and has also decreased in both area and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled, with isolated active conditions, for day
one (26 September) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
becomes geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for
day two (27 September), with mostly quiet conditions returning for
day three (28 September).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 072 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 072/072/070 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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