Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 October 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
geomagnetic sudden impulse occurred at 11/0042Z (09 nT, as measured
by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). ACE solar wind observations
indicated a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream commenced early
in the period. Solar wind velocities gradually increased during the
period (peak 463 km/sec at 11/1901Z). A period of mostly southward
Bz was observed during 11/0430 - 0800Z (minimum -10 nT at 11/0636Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (12 - 14
October) with a chance for isolated unsettled conditions as the
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream persists.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 070 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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