Viewing archive of Monday, 14 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A single unsettled
period was observed at all latitudes between 14/0000-0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods at high latitudes, for the next three days (15-17
September). The increased activity is expected as a recurrent
coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 069 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 007/015-008/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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