Viewing archive of Monday, 6 July 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 06 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1024 (S27W26) produced
an isolated C1/Sf flare at 06/1705Z. Region 1024 showed minor decay
with loss of some intermediate spots, but retained a mix of
polarities near region center.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (07 - 08 July).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (09 July) due to an increase in solar wind velocities associated
with a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 070 Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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