Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 July 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 05 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1024
(S27W13) produced a C2/Sf flare at 05/0713Z, as well as frequent
B-class flares. Minor changes were observed in the region since its
rapid emergence yesterday. It retained a beta magnetic structure
with some polarity mixing evident in its intermediate spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is also a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1024.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels throughout the forecast period (06 -
08 July).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 072 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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