Viewing archive of Friday, 12 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1009 (S25W90)
produced a few A-class flares as it approached the west limb. A
filament centered at about N50W15 erupted between 0600-0800Z which
led to a slow CME off the northwest limb as observed by the SOHO C2
coronagraph beginning at 0930Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (13-15 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
during the next 24 hours (13 December) as a high speed stream is
expected to rotate into geoeffective position. Activity is expected
to be generally quiet for the second and third days (14-15
December). The CME mentioned in Part IA is not expected to be
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 071 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 070/070/068 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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