Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1009 (S25W73) produced a
C1 flare today at 0925Z as well as a few B-class flares. The region
continues to be a small, relatively simple spot group as it
approaches the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low in general. There is, however, a chance for an isolated C-class
flare during the first day (12 December) as Region 1009 rotates
around the solar limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be initially quiet tomorrow but an increase to unsettled
with a chance for active levels is expected late on the first day
(12 December) lasting partway through the second day (13 December)
as a high speed solar wind stream rotates into geoeffective
position. Activity is expected to be generally quiet on the third
day (14 December).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 070 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 007/008-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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