Viewing archive of Monday, 14 July 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream remained geoeffective. Solar wind speed
measured at the ACE spacecraft ranged from approximately 650 km/s to
730 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on Day 1 (15 July), becoming quiet on Day 2
(16 July). Activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on Day 3
(17 July).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 066 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 008/010-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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