Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 June 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jun 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 999 (S02E46) has
shown little change from yesterday and remains a single spot alpha
magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, averaged around 680
km/s with a peak speed of 784 km/s at 17/0248 UTC. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a chance
for isolated active conditions for the next three days (18-20 June).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 066 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 010/012-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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