Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 12 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The visible solar
disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. Solar wind
speeds at ACE have steadily increased through the period starting
around 380 km/s at 12/0440Z and ending with speeds of 500 km/s at
forecast time. The increase in velocity along with the temperature
and density trends observed, is indicative of a coronal hole high
speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions for 13-15 January, due to continued influence of the high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 076 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 075/075/070 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 012/015-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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