Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 16 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low to very low. Region 978
(S10W65) decreased in both size and number of spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. A slight chance for a C-class flare remains.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active by the afternoon of December
17th as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes
geoeffective. Isolated minor storm periods at mid latitudes, and
isolated major storms at high latitudes are possible. Conditions
are expected to remain at unsettled levels with isolated active
periods through 18 December, diminishing to unsettled levels by 19
December.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 082 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 085/080/075 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 020/025-010/015-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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