Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 July 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 04 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind at ACE started the period at 03/2100 UTC with 438 km/s, increased to a peak of 652 km/s at 04/0931 UTC, and has steadily declined to around 480 km/s at forecast issue time. The IMF Bz also experienced minor fluctuations throughout the period from +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 05 July. Quiet conditions are expected for 06-07 July.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jul 072
  Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  075/075/070
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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