Viewing archive of Friday, 25 May 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 25 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 26 May and quiet to unsettled 27 - 28 May.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 May 068
  Predicted   26 May-28 May  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        25 May 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  021/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 May  014/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  016/025-012/020-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

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