Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 June 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 21 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk is
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled due to recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective
position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the forecast period, 22 - 24
June.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 066 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 068/068/070 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 010/015-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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