Viewing archive of Monday, 12 March 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Mar 12 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. No flares
were recorded during the period. Region 946 (N10W72) underwent
decay and is classified as an Hsx alpha sunspot group. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
conditions were due to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speeds have steadily increased to
approximately 570 km/sec at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. Isolated minor storm
conditions are possible on 13 March due to a recurrent coronal hole.
Predominantly unsettled to active levels are expected on 14 March.
A return to quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 March
as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 071 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 015/020-010/015-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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