Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 March 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Mar 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 946
(N10W59) was responsible for several B-class flares today. There
was some notable growth in the sunspot group over the period and
Region 946 has been classified a Dso beta complex. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels
throughout the forecast period. Isolated minor storm conditions are
possible on 12 and 13 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 071 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 012/015-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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