Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 24 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 939 (S04W69)
continued to produce small flares and has shown some simplification
since yesterday. A long duration B9 flare occurred at 24/1452 UTC
from beyond the east limb, near SE07. The flare was associated with
a CME visible in the NASA LASCO data. The source of this activity is
presumed to be the returning area of old Region 933 (S06, L=034).
Sunspots are not yet visible at the limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to increase
over the next few days as the new region rotates onto the visible
disk, C-class flares are expected and M-class flares may occur,
depending on the complexity of the area.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 080 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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