Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 January 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 24 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 939 (S04W69) continued to produce small flares and has shown some simplification since yesterday. A long duration B9 flare occurred at 24/1452 UTC from beyond the east limb, near SE07. The flare was associated with a CME visible in the NASA LASCO data. The source of this activity is presumed to be the returning area of old Region 933 (S06, L=034). Sunspots are not yet visible at the limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to increase over the next few days as the new region rotates onto the visible disk, C-class flares are expected and M-class flares may occur, depending on the complexity of the area.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
Class M10%15%20%
Class X01%05%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jan 080
  Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  080/080/085
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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