Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 January 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 25 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity reached low levels. A long duration C6.3 flare occurred at 25/0714 UTC off the east limb around S08. An associated asymmetric halo CME was first observed on LASCO imagery at 25/0654 UTC. The majority of the ejecta was directed off the east limb with an approximate plane of sky speed of 1260 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class activity from the approaching region on the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 26 and 27 January. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 28 January.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
Class M15%20%20%
Class X05%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jan 080
  Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  080/085/090
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  005/005-005/005-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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