Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 January 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 17 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions. Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has been elevated around 680 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 18 January. On 19 January, mostly unsettled conditions are expected. By 20 January, conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jan 078
  Predicted    18 Jan-20 Jan  080/080/075
  90 Day Mean        17 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jan  018/025
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm 15%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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