Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 21 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
currently no sunspots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. Old Region 926 (S09, L=138) is due to return to
the visible disk tomorrow, and may slightly increase activity
levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, with isolated
minor storm periods at high latitudes. A high speed coronal hole
stream is responsible for the disturbed periods. Solar wind speed is
in slow decline and ended the period near 600 km/s. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 22 and 23 December, with isolated
minor storm periods at higher latitudes. Quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods are expected on 24 December.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 072 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 012/015-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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