Viewing archive of Friday, 22 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. No
activity of note was observed from old active Region 926, which is
rotating onto the visible disk near S08.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. A high speed
coronal hole stream is creating occasional active periods. Solar
wind speed increased to near 750 km/s this period. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 23 December. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 24 and 25 December.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 073 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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