Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There was a single
C-class, long duration flare at approximately 17/1711Z apparently
from Region 930 (S06W88). A slow moving CME from the SW limb
occurred with very similar timing and may be associated with this
flare. Given the position and slow speed of this CME, it is not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 18 and 19. On
December 20 the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to
active due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 081 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 004/005-004/005-006/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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