Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 16 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 923 (S05W33)
exhibits emergence of new flux just to the NE of its large penumbra.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 923 (S05W33) and 924 (S08E16) continue to have
the potential for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one period of minor storming
associated with a period of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to unsettled due to a recurrent high
speed stream. An occasional active period is possible.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 094 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 010/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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