Viewing archive of Friday, 20 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed
has been increasing steadily over the past 24 hours as a coronal
hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position. At
time of issue, the solar wind speed was approximately 500 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with periods of minor storming on
21 October due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The
geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 22 and 23
October.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 071 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 015/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 010/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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