Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 01 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed has been
decreasing after a peak of approximately 650 km/s at 01/1300 UTC,
down to approxmately 550 km/s at time of issue.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (02 - 04
August).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 073 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 008/010-005/008-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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