Viewing archive of Monday, 31 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 31 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled. A solar sector boundary
crossing was observed at approximately 0300Z, 31 July. Several
hours later solar wind speed increased to 550 - 600 km/s due to the
presence of a high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to active conditions with minor
storm periods possible for the next 48 hours (01-02 August). This
activity is due to a coronal hole high speed stream. As the high
speed stream rotates past its geoeffective location, geomagnetic
activity should decline to quiet conditions for the last day of the
forecast period (03 August).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 072 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 075/075/070 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 015/020-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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