Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 08 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 898 (S06W69) produced a
C2.3 flare at 07/2147 UTC. This region appears to be in decay;
however, it still maintains a beta gamma delta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to reach
low levels with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 898.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled until midday on 09 July. Active to
major storm periods are possible due to a glancing blow from the 06
July CME. On 10 July, conditions are expected to calm to unsettled
to active levels. On 11 July, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 077 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 020/030-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
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