Viewing archive of Friday, 7 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 07 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been low with two C-class flares
from Region 898 (S06W55). Region 899 (S05E40) was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
although there is a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The solar wind speed remains
elevated due to a coronal hole high speed stream but has steadily
declined during the past 24 hours. Enhancement of 10 MeV protons
continues but has been steadily declining. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for July 8, then active on July 9 with a
chance for minor storm periods due to the arrival of the flank of
the July 6 CME. Unsettled to active conditions due to persistence
are expected for July 10.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 080 Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 007/010-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 05% |
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