Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 June 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 08 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Activity consisted of
several B-class flares. Region 892 (S06E15) is now classified as
beta gamma. The region is about the same size as yesterday and does
not appear to be growing at this time. Region 893 (S02E37) is
growing slowly but appears to be stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with a period of minor
storming between 08/0300Z and 08/0900Z due to a coronal hole high
speed stream. The solar wind velocity remains elevated at 550 - 650
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field is forecast
to be unsettled to active for the next 12 - 24 hours (09/1200Z -
09/2400Z) due to persistence of the high speed stream. Activity
levels are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for the
remainder of the forecast interval (10 - 11 June).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 080 Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 018/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 022/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 015/020-007/015-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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