Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 30 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 878 (N14E60)
produced a C5/sf at 30/0157Z. A Tenflare (110 sfu) and a Type II
radio sweep, with an estimated shock speed of 657 Km/sec, were
associated with this flare. An associated CME was observed off the
east limb on LASCO imagery at 30/0142Z. Region 876 (S11E08)
produced a C1/sf flare at 30/0932Z. A Type II radio sweep, with an
estimated shock speed of 822 Km/sec, was associated with this flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
M-class flare activity remains possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 1 May. Predominantly unsettled conditions
will occur on 2 May. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 3 May.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 100 Predicted 01 May-03 May 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 005/007-012/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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