Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 30 0028 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. An active region on the east
limb (N16E90) produced three C-class flares, including two C2 flares
at 28/2336Z and 29/1631Z. An associated CME was observed in LASCO
imagery off the east limb with a speed of approximately 414 Km/s. A
6-degree disappearing solar filament (S29W21) was reported by the
Holloman solar observatory.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
M-class flare activity remains possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the next two days (30 April - 1 May).
Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 2 May.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 101 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 005/007-005/007-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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