Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 848
(S19W15) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the period,
the largest event was a C4 x-ray flare occurring at 22/1410Z. A
weak delta spot is evident near the central cluster of intermediate
spots. Region 849 (S07E44) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 848 has the potential of producing
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 23 and 24 January due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 093 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 010/012-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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