Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 21 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 848
(S19W02) produced occasional B-class flares. Considerable new growth
was observed in the intermediate sunspots in this region, and a weak
delta configuration is now evident. No other activity of note was
observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
The increased magnetic complexity in Region 848 will likely result
in C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 January. Occasional active
periods are possible on 23 and 24 January as a coronal hole high
speed stream rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 094 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 005/005-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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