Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 January 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 21 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 848 (S19W02) produced occasional B-class flares. Considerable new growth was observed in the intermediate sunspots in this region, and a weak delta configuration is now evident. No other activity of note was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. The increased magnetic complexity in Region 848 will likely result in C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 January. Occasional active periods are possible on 23 and 24 January as a coronal hole high speed stream rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jan 094
  Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  005/005-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%40%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%50%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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