Viewing archive of Monday, 12 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 12 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few B-class flares, all from Region 835 (N20E40). Region 835
showed some development of spots between the trailing and leading
parts of the group, but decayed in total area. The level of activity
in the region has been noticeably diminished since about 0300Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (13-15 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with the exception of a
period of unsettled to active levels between 0300-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 13 December and should be
predominantly quiet for 14-15 December.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 088 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 010/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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