Viewing archive of Monday, 12 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 12 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few B-class flares, all from Region 835 (N20E40). Region 835 showed some development of spots between the trailing and leading parts of the group, but decayed in total area. The level of activity in the region has been noticeably diminished since about 0300Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (13-15 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with the exception of a period of unsettled to active levels between 0300-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 13 December and should be predominantly quiet for 14-15 December.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Dec 088
  Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        12 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  010/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Dec  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  005/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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