Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 11 2247 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to one C-class flare, a C1 at 1338Z from Region 835 (N18E55). This group is the largest on the disk at 220 millionths and appears to have a simple beta magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (12-14 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with a minor storm period at high latitudes from 1500-2100Z. Solar wind speed showed an increase up to 550-660 km/s after 0800Z which was accompanied by enhanced interplanetary magnetic field and temperature. The velocity appeared to be slowly declining after 1500Z. These solar wind signatures are consistent with a small coronal-hole-high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (12 December) with a chance for isolated active periods. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 13 December followed by generally quiet conditions for 14 December.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 093
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  017/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  010/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  008/014-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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