Viewing archive of Monday, 14 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 14 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 822 (S06E55) produced two M-class flares: an M2.6 flare at 0421 UTC and an M3.9 flare at 1423 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed in association with the M3.9 flare. Region 822 is a magnetic beta-gamma spot group and has grown over the past 24 hours. The remainder of the disk was spotless.IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. If the region continues to grow, there is a
possibility for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated
period of active conditions from 0000 UTC to 0300 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 092 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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