Viewing archive of Monday, 14 November 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 14 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 822 (S06E55) produced two M-class flares: an M2.6 flare at 0421 UTC and an M3.9 flare at 1423 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed in association with the M3.9 flare. Region 822 is a magnetic beta-gamma spot group and has grown over the past 24 hours. The remainder of the disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. If the region continues to grow, there is a possibility for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated period of active conditions from 0000 UTC to 0300 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Nov 092
  Predicted    15 Nov-17 Nov  095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  008/010-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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