Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 13 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S06E66) produced an M2.5 flare at 13/1451 UTC, and several C-class events in the last 24 hours. This group is the only spotted region on the solar disk and is still to close to the limb for a detailed analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 822 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The solar wind averaged around 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating between +1 to -4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Nov 088
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  005/008-008/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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