Viewing archive of Monday, 3 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 03 2208 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity levels were very low again this period.
Old active Region 808 is rotating on the southeast limb near S10.
This was a very active region during its last passage across the
visible disk; however, there has been no significant eruptive
activity observed over the past few days.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible from old Region 808 as it
rotates into view on 04 October. There is also a slight chance for
an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 074 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 008/007-008/007-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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