Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 October 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 02 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low on 03 October. Activity is expected to increase to low levels
with isolated M-flares possible on 04 and 05 October due to the
return of old Region 808 (S09, L=232). Region 808 produced a total
of 13 major flares (M5 or greater) during its last transit across
the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to
extended intervals of southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 075 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 080/085/090 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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