Viewing archive of Monday, 4 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 04 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 747 (S06W32) has
slightly increased in both area and spot count. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Heightened activity was
due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed at ACE increased from approximately 350 km/s to 600 km/s
during the reporting period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
on 05 April. On 06 and 07 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 085 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 012/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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