Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 03 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
on 04 April as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes
geoeffective. On 05 April, quiet to active conditions are expected.
On 06 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 081 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 080/090/090 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 015/030-012/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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